| dc.description.abstract | Nowadays, sales of cosmetics in Vietnam market have grown exponentially over the years. The customers‟ demand of cosmetic products is also increasing over time, requiring the timely response of the supplier. Yves Rocher in Vietnam also is typical of the companies which are competing fiercely on the cosmetic market. However, every year, Yves Rocher faces with unexpected expenses due to problems of excess or shortage of goods. One of the main reasons is that the company has not had an effective forecasting model in order to plan importing goods within a long leadtime and to meet the needs of customers.
This study collected data of Yves Rocher since July 2011 to date for over 70 product ranges within 48 months of sales to analyze. Based on the situation analysis, this research chooses time series model such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing method (ESM) to apply to find out the optimal forecasting model for product ranges of Yves Rocher. After applying basic steps of Box Jenkins methodology, this research has built some suitable models based on the criteria of (short running) time, accuracy, and easy to use (supported by automated system). All the analysis is done by R-statistics and Eviews 9.
Keywords: Yves Rocher in Vietnam, cosmetics market, sales forecasting model, ARIMA, Exponential Smoothing, Box Jenkins. | en_US |
